Units of work: Probability

Probability is the study of random events. By the end of their primary schooling, students should understand the concept of probability and know how to calculate it both theoretically and experimentally.See the links in the "Learning Sequence" column for more detail on the steps in the sequence.

There are three staff seminars on the topic of probability available in the Info Centre.

Units of Work

Level 1

Level 1 Probability AO1

• use everyday language to talk about chance
• classify events as certain, possible, or impossible
• No Way Jose
Lonely Pig
Level 2

Level 2 Probability AO1

• use dice etc to assign roles and discuss the fairness of games
• play probability games and identify all possible outcomes
• compare and order the likelihood of simple events
• That's not fair
• recognise that not all things occur with the same likelihood
• observe some things are fairer than others
• explore to adjust the rules of games to make them fairer
• The Cube and Coin Challenge
Level 3

Level 3 Probability AO1

• make predictions based on data collected
• identify all possible outcomes of an event
• assign probabilities to simple events using fractions (1/2, 1/6 etc)
• What's in the Bag?
• determine the experimental probability of simple events using frequency tables
• determine the theoretical probability of simple events using percentages, fractions and decimals
• systematically find all possible outcomes of an event using tree diagrams and organised lists
• I'm spinning
• systematically find all possible outcomes of an event using tree diagrams and organised lists
• Counting on Probability
• take samples and use them to make predictions
• Predict Away
• take samples and use them to make predictions
• compare theoretical and experimental probabilities
• Long Running
• make predictions based on the fraction of the spinner shaded
• compare theoretical and experimental probabilities
• Spinners
Level 4

Level 4 Probability AO1

• use relative frequency to predict events
• develop and evaluate strategies to win based on the relative frequency
• explain why probability is notan accurate predictor of events
• Top Drop
• apply theoretical probabilities to solve problems
• use tree diagrams to find the possible outcomes for a sequence of events
• use powers of numbers
• Greedy Pig
 Level 4 Probability AO1 Level 4 Probability AO2
• investigate probability in common situations;
• make and justify the probability of events in common situations;
• theoretically and experimentally examine the probabilities of games of chance.
• Beat It
• find a theoretical probability
• use more than one way to find a theoretical probability
• check theoretical probabilities by trials
• identify what a fair game is and how to make a unfair game fair
• The Coloured Cube Question
• use simulations to investigate probability in common situations
• predict the likelihood of outcomes on the basis of an experiment;
• petermine the theoretical probability of an event;
• Murphy's Law
• theoretically and experimentally examine the probabilities of games of chance
• describe the notion of "short run variability"
• estimate and find the relative frequencies of events
• Gambling:who really wins?
Level 5

Level 5 Probability AO2

• find probabilities of events using probability trees
• invent their own situations and ask probability questions in these contexts
• Probability Trees
 Level 5 Probability AO1 Level 5 Probability AO2
• use long-run frequencies to estimate probabilities.
• compare the results of theoretical and experimental approaches to games of chance.
• use grids to list outcomes.
• use tree diagrams to list outcomes
• Fair Games
• explain what a probability distribution is
• explain how probabilities are distributed
• calculate what happens to the distribution when variables are summed
• Probability Distributions
Level 6

Level 6 Probability AO1

• conduct straightforward experiments with coins, dice, spinners, and other random event generators
• produce and understand the concept of a random walk
• develop,understand and be able to use Pascalâ€™s Triangl;
• determine probabilities of a class that is just a little too complicated for probability trees.
• Investigating Random Processes